US Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Rise of Terrorism in Pakistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of South and Central Asia. This abrupt shift ended two decades of US military presence, creating a vacuum that has exacerbated regional instability, particularly impacting Pakistan. There has been an alarming resurgence of terrorism since 2021, with the number of violent incidents increasing exponentially in Pakistan’s provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. Intensified actions of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baloch Separatists, and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) raise serious concerns about the actors and objectives driving these developments. The insight argues that the rise of terrorism in Pakistan following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan stems from global powers leveraging terrorist organisations and exploiting internal fault lines to advance their conflicting geopolitical interests.

Post-US withdrawal, Pakistan has witnessed a sharp increase in attacks targeting security forces, law enforcement agencies, and security checkpoints, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). These attacks escalated after the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) broke a fragile ceasefire agreement with the government in 2022 and vowed to target security forces. The graph below depicts the total number of attacks in Pakistan, particularly in KP and Balochistan, from 2008 to 2024, highlighting a renewed surge in terrorism following the US withdrawal, with a noticeable increase in attacks across the country.

The rise of terrorism in Pakistan after the US withdrawal is contingent upon specific external as well as internal factors. The Interior Ministry cautioned that terrorist groups posed a significant threat to Chinese development projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as evident by the attacks perpetrated against Chinese individuals.
The data in the table highlights a significant increase in attacks targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Only three incidents were reported from 2014 to 2020, and the frequency of such attacks exponentially increased from 2021 to 2024, indicating considerable escalation in frequency. These attacks reveal the terrorists’ intention to disrupt state-to-state relations by targeting the interests of one country within the territory of another.

Additionally, China’s economic and strategic investments in Pakistan, mainly through CPEC, have made the country a key node in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Destabilising Pakistan disrupts these plans, hindering China’s regional and global ambitions. Allegations of US support for anti-China movements globally provide a backdrop for speculation regarding its role in Pakistan.
According to the report of Foreign Policy magazine, the TTP and other groups are receiving external assistance, as indicated by their use of US-made weapons and advanced communication systems, which have notably strengthened their tactical capabilities and resources. Despite the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reports that the US remains the country's largest donor, having allocated or made available US$20.71 billion in assistance since then. Additionally, reports indicate that the US and other international donors send approximately US$80 million in cash to Afghanistan every two weeks to support the so-called “humanitarian efforts”.
Pakistani intelligence agencies have also reported that militant groups such as the TTP and Baloch Separatists receive external support, including funding and advanced weaponry. Recent seizures of US military equipment further highlight the involvement of external forces in the region’s terrorist activities. Pakistani security forces have recovered various US-made weapons during operations targeting terrorist groups. These include M-32 grenade launchers, night vision devices, M-4 carbines, M-16/A4 rifles, and AK-47s. Incidents such as these, coupled with the use of advanced military equipment in attacks on locations like Gwadar Port, Miran Shah, and Mianwali Airbase, underscore the prevalence of foreign arms in regional terrorist activities. Although the US has consistently denied allegations of supporting terrorism in Pakistan, emphasising its focus on global counterterrorism efforts, the opaque nature of proxy warfare makes direct attribution challenging without whistleblowers or leaked documents.

Furthermore, there is substantial evidence suggesting India's involvement in supporting terrorist activities in Pakistan's Balochistan province through financial aid, weapons, and training. In December 2023, Baloch National Army (BNA) commander Sarfraz Ahmed Bungulzai, after surrendering to Pakistani authorities, revealed at a press conference in Quetta that India has been financing separatist forces and orchestrating conspiracies in the region.
However, these external factors exploit the internal challenges of the state, including religious extremism, political instability, economic hardships, and weak governance, which are significant contributors to terrorism. The character of TTP has changed from a religious to an ethnonationalist organisation targeting security forces while seeking support through nationalism after the establishment of the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Political instability in the country has further diverted the government’s attention from counterterrorism, allowing extremist groups to regroup and operate with greater freedom. Similarly, the economic crisis of 2022, marked by soaring inflation and unemployment, created conditions where impoverished individuals became more vulnerable to recruitment by militant organisations. Additionally, the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reported that the youth in Pakistan were hit hard by massive unemployment, further increasing their susceptibility to extremist recruitment. Weak governance, exemplified by the delayed implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) and the inability to secure the Pak-Afghan border, facilitated militant infiltration and escalated attacks across the country. Together, these factors demonstrate how external forces leverage internal vulnerabilities to exacerbate terrorism in Pakistan.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has undeniably reshaped South Asia’s security dynamics, with Pakistan bearing the brunt of heightened instability. While various factors contribute to the resurgence of terrorism, the possibility of external actors leveraging these groups for strategic purposes cannot be dismissed. Destabilising Pakistan aligns with broader efforts to counter China’s influence in the region, raising complex questions about the intersection of local and global politics. Historical patterns of proxy warfare, targeted attacks on Chinese interests, and evidence of external funding collectively suggest a nuanced yet troubling scenario. A balanced, evidence-based approach is essential to address these challenges, ensuring Pakistan’s stability and regional security in the face of evolving threats.