Space – An Emerging Battlefield

Space is transitioning from a domain of peaceful collaboration for scientific exploration to a contested arena for military and strategic rivalry. Rapid technological advancements and increasing dependence on space-based assets have enhanced the significance of space for defence strategies. Driven by strategic and geopolitical ambitions, powers like the US, China, Russia and India are actively increasing their space capabilities in terms of militarisation and potential weaponisation, threatening strategic stability among major powers. This insight aims to analyse the current status of space vis-a-vis the future of space as an emerging battlefield, highlighting the need to maintain stability and peace.
Space is of paramount importance to economic development and military strategy. Space technologies have dual purposes, such as navigation systems and earth observation satellites at Low Earth Orbit (LEO) with high-resolution cameras. Integration of these systems into defence strategies strengthens operational capabilities, enabling intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), positioning, navigation and timing (PNT), command and control (C2), as well as early warning, communication, and precise targeting. Space-based systems are, hence, central to modern warfare. Considering the strategic importance of space, countries like the US, China, Russia, India, and others are allocating substantial budgets, as shown in Graph 1.

As the power struggle intensifies, major powers increase their space capabilities for defensive and offensive purposes. According to the Space Foundation, the global military space budget was US$57 billion, i.e. 56% of government space spending in 2023. The comparison of space military capabilities in Table shows that the US is the dominant force in space, followed by Russia, China, and India. The new space competition started in the first decade of the 21st century and intensified recently by establishing space forces and developing new technologies like Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons.

The US Strategy aims to maintain space superiority to secure vital national interests by supporting combined operations and ensuring space stability. Establishing the US Space Force in 2019 and the highest space defence budget of US$29.4 billion in 2024 underscores the US commitment to its strategy. To counter ASAT threats, the US aims to develop electronic warfare systems and cyberspace capabilities for offensive and defensive operations in space while expanding satellite constellations in LEO to ensure operational redundancy.
China considers space a critical domain for strategic competition in the security field, emphasising the protection of space assets and ensuring information dominance. China aims to achieve strategic parity with the US in space, with the PLA Aerospace Force overseeing space operations and spending an estimated US$10 billion annually. It also plans to establish a “Belt and Road Space Information Corridor” to advance its global interests.
Once a leading space power, Russia seeks to maintain its status in parity with the US and China. Russia operates its Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) for dual purposes besides military satellites. The 2021 ASAT test ensured its position as a space power aimed to counterbalance the US and NATO in the strategic domain. Despite economic challenges, Russia has strategic ambitions, as indicated by its veto of the 2024 UN resolution sponsored by the US on arms control in space.
As an emerging space power, the Indian Space Programme emphasises dual-use technologies such as Geosynchronous Satellites (GSAT), Cartosat Earth Observation Satellites, and the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS), seeking strategic autonomy. It also leverages its partnership with the US to obtain geospatial intelligence and enhance its capabilities. The 2019 ASAT missile test aimed to portray itself as a space power.
Pakistan's first-ever space policy, made in 2023, aims to address the economic and security challenges by deploying Earth-Observing Satellites at LEO in cooperation with friendly states, particularly China. However, Pakistan’s space programme is nascent compared to the US, Russia, China, India, etc.
The study of the space strategies of leading contenders, technological advancements, and space discourse indicates that the trend is shifting from space militarisation to space weaponisation. There are four major concerns regarding the future of space. The first is the potential violation of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, banning the deployment of weapons in LEO and celestial bodies. The major powers have vetoed the UN resolution on “The Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space” since the 1980s. They could not agree on the latest resolution in April 2024 regarding the ban on weaponising outer space. It reflects the distrust among major powers and their intentions to weaponise space in the future.

Second, the development of sophisticated ASAT missiles by the US, Russia, China and India indicates a space arms race. Though it does not violate the outer space treaty, it will lead to its weaponisation and increase the risk of unintended escalation, lowering the threshold for conflict between rivals. Developing and deploying co-orbital ASAT weapons, space-to-earth missiles, cyber threats, and electronic interference could further complicate the situation, thus undermining strategic stability.
Third, the deployment of nuclear weapons in space is another primary concern. There are two opposing arguments: the first is to establish a successful first-strike capability, and the second advocates enhancing deterrence by establishing a second-strike capability. However, the race for the deployment of nuclear weapons will undermine the deterrence stability among states by influencing strategic calculations and lowering the threshold for a nuclear war with serious consequences for global security.
The fourth concern regarding the future of space is the emergence of private space companies, which could be decisive in shaping conflict dynamics by providing states with ISR and communication services in times of war. Space X offers such services for Ukraine against Russia in the ongoing conflict through its Starlink satellite constellation. According to a CNN report, Ukraine is using Starlink services for drone attacks against Russia. The role of Starlink, owned by Elon Musk, indicates that future wars on Earth and space may be influenced by individuals or non-state actors with space capabilities.
To conclude, the strategic rivalries among major powers and technological advancements have undeniably shifted space from a peaceful domain to an emerging frontier for war. Taking notice of the developments regarding space, Pakistan should consider it a national security issue and develop its capabilities to avoid a situation where it is taken off-guard. The international community needs to increase efforts to prevent strategic instability, strengthen the Outer Space Treaty and establish conflict resolution mechanisms. It is essential to ensure this vital domain remains a realm of peaceful cooperation and exploration.