Why is it Essential for Emerging Powers to Focus on Decentralised Collaborations During Geopolitical Chaos?

Introduction
An eagle’s view of current geopolitical dynamics reveals a new energy for reforming defence and security collaboration in anticipation of a changing global landscape, which is also idealistically described as ‘order’ or, more realistically, as disorder. Collaboration between nation states, such as BRICS, now focuses on regional integration, assuming a new global multipolarity and non-intervention in each other’s affairs, to address specific security challenges in the immediate neighbourhood of collaborating states. A desire for greater decentralized cooperation without dominance by other powers shapes new initiatives.

Communication aims to sensitize decision-makers regarding the level of policymaking concerning the need for emerging powers to cluster together and collaborate with the strategic intent of decreasing dependence on the northern hemisphere powers. To achieve this aim, the author shares personal reflections from participating in the 5th International Workshop on Leadership and Stability, held at the National Defence University from February 17–25, 2025, in Islamabad. These reflections are the author’s own and are based on the contents of a reflective diary, without specific reference to any individual perspectives.

The main argument is that emerging powers must develop and refine systems that enable seamless collaboration with partners who share overlapping security interests to establish the capacity to defend their immediate neighbourhoods.

A combined capacity will grant a cluster of countries the freedom to take strategic initiatives without relying on partners from the developed world, such as Europe, which faces domestic constraints and risks becoming unreliable.

The communication will deploy this argument by highlighting several changes in the geopolitical landscape pertinent to international defence cooperation. It will address establishing defence capacity in emerging states to engage in defence collaboration, including enhancing defence systems to prepare for military cooperation. The final comments will focus on freedom of action and initiative, particularly in emerging power collaboration.

Changes in the Geopolitical Landscape
Numerous nations advocate for a multipolar world where power is shared among various global players capable of fostering stability. China and Russia are perceived as either challenges or reliable partners in international affairs. For instance, Australia and India are gradually emerging as regional allies to counterbalance China’s presence in the Indian Ocean, whereas South Africa and Southeast Asia are moving closer to China. International organisations, such as the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), and African Union (AU), are losing credibility due to unfulfilled aspirations, unresolved issues, public criticism, and perceived inefficiency. In this context, recent conflicts have revealed that international law is meaningless if it cannot be enforced.

Key emerging powers, including Australia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, and South Africa, emphasize the importance of regional integration for socio-economic growth and maintaining domestic stability, thereby avoiding involvement in conflicts and rivalries. Security frameworks, such as the EU, AU, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), aim to enhance cooperation and promote South-South dialogue and conflict resolution to address regional issues.

Nations emphasise the importance of non-intervention in sovereign states' internal affairs. This approach favours diplomatic methods instead of military intervention to address conflicts. For example, many nations maintain a robust tradition of engaging in United Nations peacekeeping missions, regarding these initiatives as beneficial for global security and for expanding market access in support of their national interests.

Currently, the world is confronted with particular security challenges, including regionally impactful terrorism, organised crime, drug trafficking, and political instability. A ‘New Cold War’ is emerging, highlighted by signs of renewed nuclear proliferation from countries like Iran. Collaborations with regional and global partners often aim to address transnational security threats. Nonetheless, forecasting the future is challenging due to numerous factors, including the rapid advancement of digital technologies and increased connectivity, rising internal violence amid a decline in the rule of law, ineffective strategies to alleviate poverty, and the consequences of climate change.

When President Trump took office as a pro-business peacemaker closely aligned with wealthy business leaders who wield considerable political clout, he began disrupting the established global rules-based order and challenging current geopolitical arrangements such as the UN and NATO. Relations with the United States of America (USA) have become uncertain, particularly for unaligned countries. The US, as a dominant power, continues to maintain its military-industrial complex by selling arms and equipment to wartorn nations while exploiting weaker countries to meet its ongoing mineral demands.

Key countries like the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are pursuing closer security cooperation with the USA, including alliances like NATO and the Five Eyes intelligence partnership. They believe there are no viable alternatives and anticipate strategic benefits from the USA. Nevertheless, emerging states are still non-aligned and seek partnerships with alternative powers, such as China, which is known for its reliability. They are also evaluating the future influence of the Trump administration, which will become more apparent after the mid-term elections in 2026. Many states might favour a transactional foreign policy method, emphasising practical international relations through tangible exchanges like economic incentives, security assurances, and political concessions rather than relying on abstract ideals or enduring alliances.

Establishing Defence Collaboration Capacity in a Sovereign State
In national security, a nation's challenge is building credible military capabilities to deter potential adversaries while fostering partnerships. This involves anticipating future threats and aligning military development with other national priorities, including the welfare of citizens and human security. Given the constraints of limited resources and the complex political landscape, smaller states have historically relied on alliances with former colonial powers and Cold War-era countries, such as the Soviet Union and China, to establish and sustain their military capabilities. Such international cooperation in military development can create a dependency that restricts the decision-making autonomy of the nation being supported. For instance, in the event of sudden hostilities, as seen in South Africa’s involvement in the Eastern DRC, a nation may have limited options if it cannot rely on its unreliable partners. Thus, a sovereign state must develop a credible deterrent supporting its populace's well-being, aiding societal reconstruction after violent conflicts, and protecting affected communities. This balanced capacity should operate beyond the limitations of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) framework promoted by the UN while simultaneously collaborating with regional partners directly impacted by the conflict.

Collaboration capacity is key to military force development, particularly for enhancing system interoperability. This factor became crucial during rapid technological advancements, when even experts often struggle to keep up with ongoing changes, which are sometimes obscured from public scrutiny. As technology evolved, it became vital for international military collaboration to adapt. Logical systems must communicate effectively while ensuring human development for the command and control of these systems. One of the significant challenges remains finding a balance between opening systems to partners involved in various collaborations and safeguarding national security interests by restricting access where necessary.

Human expertise in managing these systems is crucial for aligning missions with national interests and political objectives. This necessitates a specific type of individual: Soldiers today, in an era of technological supremacy, must possess technical skills, mainly digital competencies. Mastering and utilising digital technology has become essential for soldiers, not merely for survival but also to significantly impact the battlefield.

This new level of digital trade underscores the need for soldiers’ intellectual development. Traditional pressure training is becoming less relevant in chaotic situations. Instead, a focus on character development through a whole-person approach is essential. Although this method is not novel for modern professional armies, the current emphasis is on intellectual development, enabling individual soldiers to make informed and independent decisions while maintaining a comprehensive understanding of relevant geopolitics, national interests, and the missions of collaborative forces in an uncertain world. This approach will help prevent negligent decisions that could lead to disastrous outcomes for missions or humanity.

The Case of Pakistan is an Emerging Power in an Unstable Geopolitical Landscape
Pakistan’s position is in what is often described as a challenging neighbourhood. This context necessitates that the country’s national state and security policy incorporates capabilities that effectively utilise economic and social resources to enhance national power. According to The National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022–2026 (published for public distribution), a comprehensive security policy must balance traditional aspects (such as preserving the Islamic identity defined in the constitution and honouring the nation’s rich cultural heritage) with non-traditional security strengths: Fostering unity and stability through the promotion of democracy, maintaining political stability, ensuring consistency in policies, and achieving national consensus. This approach forms a cohesive overarching policy that prioritises national dialogue and unity to effectively utilise the country’s elements of power.

The challenges of defining the rough neighbourhood lie beyond the scope of this paper. However, the instability in Afghanistan, illicit cross-border economic activities, particularly piracy and smuggling, India’s perceived aggressive policies towards Pakistan regarding Kashmir, and India’s power projection in the Indian Ocean must be mentioned. Furthermore, the terrorist threat in Baluchistan also needs to be acknowledged. The proximity of nuclear powers – including China, India, Russia, and Israel – adds complexity to the situation, primarily as Pakistan seeks friendly relations with all nuclear powers, particularly China, while also maintaining its capabilities amidst this atomic backdrop. Therefore, emerging powers such as Pakistan, with security interests in both East and South Asia, must be pragmatic in their response to the political instability in the region without affronting longstanding partners such as the USA and China. This is intended to safeguard and protect Pakistan’s interests. However, as is the case with emerging powers worldwide, Pakistan has the responsibility to ensure the well-being of its citizens and defend them against all forms of aggression.

While Pakistan’s National Security Policy implies and effectively addresses the necessity of human security, the strategic implementation of noble policy intentions hinges upon innovative solutions to achieve victories for peace and establish suitable socio-economic and human development mechanisms. Developing and implementing creative solutions necessitates freedom of action and independent decisions that extend beyond regional pressures and demands, surpassing all international pressures and needs to focus on the well-being of its citizens.

Avoiding dependence on foreign aid for development and humanitarian assistance necessitates a keen focus on trade and investment to cultivate a robust economy. In this context, transnational public-private partnerships (PPPs) involving the military and business are vital for promoting both military and civilian well-being. An economic renaissance signifies enhanced government, business, and civil society collaboration. Sustainable and effective delivery structures must be upheld, considering that development is not solely about enriching political and business elites but rather about creating opportunities for the underprivileged members of society to engage equally in profit ventures. In this regard, partnerships with local communities are crucial for successful PPPs.

Conclusion
In conclusion, emerging powers cannot operate alone in the international political arena, which is experiencing increased political chaos. The immediate need is for nation-states and current collaborating states at the regional level to reassess international collaborations, focusing on partners with shared security interests in a shared regional space.

For emerging powers, as individual sovereign nation-states or as groups of states, it has become urgent to create freedom of action in decision-making, enabling the projection of transnational influence and agency in international affairs. Additionally, it is vital to remind relevant stakeholders that, in contemporary global dynamics, close partnerships and new relationships in the immediate neighbourhood of countries are necessary for military initiatives against common adversaries and to serve the state's people better. Close partnerships may lead to formal defence and security pacts or formal alliances. Still, pragmatic collaborations without formal agreements, focusing on initiatives such as joint military exercises or specific projects at an operational level, will serve the purpose of independent action, free from control and exploitation by developed countries. In this regard, capacity development in the domestic realm encompasses both technological and human development and the whole society initiatives involving government, local businesses, communities, and industry capacities.