Strategic Thought

RESURGENCE OF TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN: DRIVERS, MOTIVES AND IMPACTS

Professor Dr. Muhammad Khan ; Dr. Sidra Khan — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Despite effectively combating militancy and terrorism in the first two decades of the 21st century, there is a resurgence of terrorism in Pakistan. The resurgence of terrorism has its origin from across the western frontiers of Pakistan. This return of terrorism started a few months after the establishment of the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. Whereas Afghan Taliban has promised not to allow the usage of Afghan soil against any country in the agreement “United States–Taliban deal or the Doha Accord” signed on 29 February 2020 in Doha, Qatar, the terrorists of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (FITNA AL KHAWARIJ), stationed in Afghanistan are undertaking terrorism against Pakistan in consistency. There have been significant terrorist attacks on Pakistani military posts and civilians in the last three years. The resurgence of terrorism from Afghan soil has posed serious security challenges for the Pakistani state and society. This research analyses three salient factors of the revival of terrorism in Pakistan: a) the drivers of renewed terrorism in Pakistan, b) the motives behind the revival of terrorism in Pakistan, and c) how this new wave of terrorism is impacting the state and society of Pakistan.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Prof Dr. Muhammad and Dr. Sidra Khan. 2024. "Resurgence of Terrorism in Pakistan: Drivers, Motives and Impacts." Strategic Thought (6): 1-18.

PAKISTAN’S COUNTER VIOLENT EXTREMISM (CVE) OVERTURES – AN UNFINISHED TASK!

Dr. Shabana Fayyaz — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Violent Extremism has a history to itself and has caused inhuman manifestations – Genocide, Mass Killings, and Live deaths across the world. In the present age of digital connectivity and its manipulation, illicit money flow, fungible borders, misuse of religion, racial identity, and ethnic groundings have all contributed to the furthering of Violent Extremism at the national, regional and global levels. Force-based counter-terrorism response mechanisms serve as one of the critical mediums for restoring the nation-state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and also led to the international coalition of forces, WOT (War on Terror), following the 9/11 WTC Attacks in the United States. Parallel to this, CVE (Countering Violent Extremism) implies the conception, policy formulation and implementation through the non-kinetic steps. Ideally, this task requires a healthy partnership between the state and society, which remains an ongoing effort for most states. Pakistan is also faced with multi-faceted and multi-layered Violent Extremism (VE) trends that question its basis of formation and necessitate a proactive and holistic CVE (Countering Violent Extremism) policy. This research study deliberates upon the responsive mechanism of the state versus violent extremism and highlights the gaps and challenges. In doing so, ‘Spectrum Matrix – P3 (Perception, Policy and Practice)’ is proposed and employed as a methodological lens to analyse Pakistan’s CVE (counter violent extremism) enterprise. The central argument is that Islamabad CVE is a work in progress, and across the board, ‘state-society’ ownership remains an uphill task.

Bibliography Entry

Fayyaz, Dr. Shabana. 2024. "Pakistan’s Counter Violent Extremism (CVE) Overtures – An Unfinished Task!." Strategic Thought (6): 19-40.

PAKISTAN'S AMBIGUOUS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PRIMA FACIE DETERRENCE AIMED AT WAR AVOIDANCE AND INDIA'S QUEST FOR COMPELLENCE

Ghulam Shabeer Narejo; Prof Dr. Zulfqar Khan , Dr. Ahmad Khan — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Nuclear weapons are not war-fighting arsenals but weapons of deterrence, which is articulated through nuclear doctrine. Nuclear doctrine provides a framework that determines development, deployment, and conditions in which states may consider its use. All nuclear states, except Pakistan, have declared the First Use and No First Use policy. Pakistan has adopted a different approach and has not publicly declared its nuclear doctrine, leaving it vague and ambiguous. However, statements of significant officials denote scattered strands of Pakistani nuclear doctrine, which led to the policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence. Full Spectrum Deterrence is neither a first-use nor no-first-use policy; instead, it is a military capability to avoid wars that deter India across the entire threat spectrum and prevent India from attempting any aggression in all continuums of warfare. This has limited Indian aggressive capabilities and forced a rethinking of its NFU, including its conventional doctrine for achieving compellence benefits against Pakistan.

Bibliography Entry

Narejo, Ghulam Shabeer, Prof Dr. Zulfqar Khan and Dr. Ahmad Khan. 2024. "Pakistan's Ambiguous Nuclear Doctrine Prima Facie Deterrence Aimed at War Avoidance and India's Quest for Compellence." Strategic Thought (6): 41-56.

INDIA’S STRATEGIC CULTURE: SHAPING THE SOUTH ASIAN GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS

Shah Meer — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

The transformation in global politics and India’s rise have changed South Asia's security landscape and geopolitics. India’s engagement with the US as the ‘net security provider’ against China and the Asia-Pacific littorals makes way for increased security dilemmas in South Asia. India has an offensive strategic culture based on realpolitik. It moves India for the power pursuit, hegemony, and hierarchy in the global order and places it as the most sacred and respectable unit of the international system. In light of the geopolitical realities, the study aims to discuss the Indian strategic culture through the lens of Strategic Culture Theory. It focuses on how India’s geographical imperatives, historical evolution, and cultural values shape its national security policy and influence the regional dynamics in South Asia. The study finds that India’s behaviour in geopolitical environments is motivated by its strategic culture, which has its roots in Indian scriptures, history, and geography.

Bibliography Entry

Meer, Shah. 2024. "India’s Strategic Culture: Shaping the South Asian Geopolitical Dynamics." Strategic Thought (6): 57-74.

THE STRATEGIC TRIANGLE: US, CHINA, AND RUSSIA IN GLOBAL SECURITY GOVERNANCE

Dr. Muhammad Fahim Khan ; Muhammad Ijaz Awan — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Paradigm adjustments in the balance of power in the ever-changing world of international politics inevitably impact the status quo. Concerning this matter, it has been observed that the rivalry between the US, China, and Russia has significant consequences for the structure of international security on a global and regional scale. On one side, China wants to spearhead a paradigm shift in global security governance towards a new era of "partnership and mutually beneficial outcomes" and seems unhappy with the US-centric framework. China has been inconsistent in its posture towards Russia despite supporting Russia's narratives and viewing Russia as a possible ally in the crisis in Ukraine. According to this, the potential for collaboration and confrontation in China's foreign and security policies appears to be ongoing. On the one hand, the US sees military engagement in particular regions and the promotion of democracy and human rights by the US as problematic; on the other hand, US officials see Russian and Chinese backing for repressive governments as unproductive. However, the United States and China could cooperate on peacekeeping, global stability, and avoiding unintentional escalation. Given the changing dynamics between these three superpowers and how they affect international security, it is crucial to grasp better their objectives and how they could work together or clash in different parts of the world. With these ideas in mind, this study will evaluate the global chessboard where these big countries fight a complex war for domination.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Dr. Muhammad Fahim and Muhammad Ijaz Awan. 2024. "The Strategic Triangle: US, China, and Russia in Global Security Governance." Strategic Thought (6): 75-90.

PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2030

Dr. Nazir Hussain — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Given the uncertainties surrounding the internal and external security environment, future forecasting is challenging; however, based on empirical data, track record and actions taken, future scenario-building can be possible. Since its inception, Pakistan has suffered political and economic instability and an unfavourable external security environment. This situation is mainly due to the need for more visionary leadership, wrong priorities and short-sighted policy directions. Therefore, this paper endeavours to predict Pakistan’s strategic outlook for 2030 through different scenarios. The paper bases its argument on the theoretical foundation of James Rosenau, analysis of essential variables, discussion of challenges vs opportunities, and strengths vs weaknesses. The paper suggests some course corrections in the form of political reconciliation, economic tight-roping, and the search for new areas of revenue generation. The paper uses official documents, authentic research reports, policy papers, and analyses of the subject specialists to prove the main arguments.

Bibliography Entry

Hussain, Dr. Nazir. 2024. " Pakistan’s Strategic Outlook 2030." Strategic Thought (6): 91-102.

GLOBAL CARBON NEUTRALITY AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN GLOBAL SOUTH: A CASE STUDY ON THAR COAL PROJECT, PAKISTAN

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi; Ms. Rahemeen Fatima Malik — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

As the global climate continues to change, so does the need to shift away from fossil fuels. However, for countries in the Global South facing long-term energy crises such as Pakistan, fossil fuels provide a lifeline amidst challenging circumstances. This paper examines the impact of achieving carbon neutrality on national sovereignty, with a particular focus on the Thar project. The aim is to make a convincing case for reconciling carbon neutrality objectives with the need to meet energy requirements. Extensive research was conducted to understand the views of academicians, professionals and residents of Thar. The findings showed that the residents of Thar are in favour of the project. While there were some diverging views on the project’s environmental impact, the overwhelming consensus was in favour of the continuation of the project. The results of the research also showed a predominantly positive focus on the Thar Coal Project. These findings highlight the need for a holistic approach to managing the complex relationship between environmental sustainability, energy security and energy requirements, especially in regions facing urgent energy challenges.

Bibliography Entry

Shafi, Dr. Khalid Mahmood and Ms. Rahemeen Fatima Malik. 2024. "Global Carbon Neutrality and National Security in Global South: A Case Study on Thar Coal Project, Pakistan." Strategic Thought (6): 103-124.

PAKISTAN'S QUEST FOR SUSTAINABLE MARITIME DEVELOPMENT

Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar ; Muhammad Danish Masood — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0500

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) prioritise the conservation of marine ecosystems, explicitly emphasising effective and efficient coastal management and blue economy as a new concept of sustainable economic development. While Pakistan has long been disregarding its maritime capabilities, being a country with a rich coastline, it has vast potential to utilise its advantageous geographical location for seaborne trade. Pakistan needs a blue economy shift due to the increasing demand for eco-friendly development and proper management of available resources. The study explores Pakistan's current maritime resource utilisation, identifying challenges such as overfishing, outdated infrastructure, and bureaucratic hurdles. It emphasises the need for policy reforms, enhanced human resource capacity, and technological advancements. The significance of mangrove conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and private sector investment are pivotal for economic growth and ecological balance. To harness the blue economy potential sustainably, Pakistan must undertake policy reforms, strengthen its human resource capacity, and cooperate across sectors and with other countries.

Bibliography Entry

Babar, Dr. Summar Iqbal and Muhammad Danish Masood. 2024. "Pakistan's Quest for Sustainable Maritime Development." Strategic Thought (6): 125-138.